On laurels, megapixels and missed opportunities

With the launch of the Pentax 645Z, Nikon's and Canon's seemingly endless period of neglect of their professional high resolution bodies has entered a new phase. Apparently 645Z preorders are phenomenal. But who is buying these expensive cameras? It's not the Hasselblad and Mamiya users, they are already heavily invested in very capable high resolution systems. Some of them may consider the 645Z for its low-light capabilities and suitability for outdoor shooting, but that's a very limited group of potential buyers. The vast majority of 645Z preorders are undoubtedly placed by Nikon D3x and Canon 1Ds Mk III users who have been waiting to upgrade for years. The Canon 1Ds Mk III will be seven years old in August, and the Nikon D3x will celebrate its sixth birthday in December. Both are great cameras, but in a time when tourists, teenagers and uncle Bob are shooting higher performance, higher resolution sensors, bringing them to a professional shoot becomes more and more of a problem. There are an estimated quarter of a million D3x and 1Ds Mk III cameras currently in use by professional photographers. That's 250,000 people interested in a modern 50+ MP professional DSLR in the $7k to $9k price range. The money is there, ready to be spent, as it has been for at least two years. Both Nikon and Canon have modern professional bodies with enough processing power for 5 fps high resolution shooting, the D4s and the 1D X. Why does it take them so long to put a high resolution sensor in them? The required pixel density has been around for quite a while in APS-C sensors. Nikon and Canon have really been dragging their feet when it comes to their professional lineups.
 

Nikon
There have been many rumors about upcoming high resolution bodies from Nikon, and at least the D4x is pretty much a certainty. However, in light of the recent launch of the D4s, it looks like Nikon is saving the D4x for Photokina in September. Pentax will have sold a lot of 645Zs by then, and once the money is spent and a studio has state-of-the-art high resolution capability, interest in a 54MP camera with a much smaller sensor will be significantly lower. Even if the D4x is not ready to ship before the end of the year, Nikon should announce it. Not in the fall, now, so that Nikon shooters know that it's coming.

Canon
Rumors about Canon's high resolution pro bodies are few and far between. We suspect that Canon have changed their plans several times during the past two years. The 46MP prototypes using 1D X bodies widely reported may have been deemed too conservative for a camera that has to stay relevant for several years, and Canon's higher resolution sensors may not be ready for prime time. But information about Canon's plans is extremely scarce. They could announce a high resolution flagship body tomorrow. And they should.